AI Chip Export Controls in 2026: What Changed and What It Means

Background: How We Got Here

U.S. export controls on advanced computing semiconductors have evolved rapidly since October 2022, when BIS first introduced performance-based thresholds to restrict the flow of AI-capable chips to China and other destinations of concern. The controls initially targeted chips above a Total Processing Performance (TPP) threshold of 4,800, then tightened in October 2023 with revised TPP calculations and expanded end-use restrictions.

By late 2025, a broad "presumption of denial" policy governed license applications for virtually all advanced computing exports to China and Macau. That changed on January 15, 2026, with the publication of a final rule in the Federal Register (Document 2026-00789) amending 15 CFR Parts 742, 744, and 748.

What the January 2026 Rule Changed

The core shift: BIS moved from a blanket presumption of denial to a case-by-case review for certain advanced computing semiconductors destined for China and Macau — but only when exported directly from the United States, and only for chips below specific performance ceilings.

The TPP and Bandwidth Thresholds

A chip qualifies for case-by-case review only if it meets both criteria:

These thresholds were calibrated to cover current-generation AI accelerators while excluding next-generation architectures.

Which Chips Qualify?

The H200 sits comfortably below both thresholds. The MI325X is much closer to the ceiling, with a TPP of approximately 20,800 — leaving very little headroom.

The Four Conditions for Case-by-Case Approval

Eligibility for case-by-case review does not guarantee a license will be granted. Exporters must satisfy four strict conditions:

1. U.S. Supply Priority

Exporters must demonstrate that no domestic orders have been delayed or deprioritized to fulfill China-bound shipments. Additionally, China shipment volume cannot exceed 50% of the exporter's U.S. sales volume for the same product line.

2. Purchaser Compliance Programs

Chinese purchasers must adopt and maintain documented export compliance and customer screening procedures. BIS expects these programs to include end-use monitoring and records of downstream distribution.

3. Independent Third-Party Testing

Every shipment must undergo verification by an independent U.S.-based testing entity to confirm the chips meet declared specifications and have not been modified. This is a significant logistical requirement that adds cost and lead time to each transaction.

4. KYC and Remote Access Safeguards

Exporters must implement Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols for all purchasers and ensure that remote access safeguards prevent unauthorized use of the chips for purposes inconsistent with stated end-uses.

What Remains Restricted

Several important limitations apply:

• Reexports from third countries to China and Macau remain subject to a presumption of denial — the relaxation only applies to direct exports from the United States
• In-country transfers within China also remain under presumption of denial
• Chips exceeding either threshold (TPP >= 21,000 or bandwidth >= 6,500 GB/s) remain fully restricted
• Entity List restrictions continue to apply regardless of chip performance level — exports to listed entities still face a presumption of denial

The Associated Tariff Action

One day before the export rule took effect, on January 14, 2026, the White House announced a 25% tariff on advanced computing semiconductors meeting the same performance thresholds, imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. The tariff applies to imports into the U.S. but exempts chips for domestic use and consumption.

This created an unusual policy combination: loosened export licensing paired with a new tariff, reflecting an approach that uses trade tools to manage both the supply chain and the strategic technology competition simultaneously.

Relevant ECCNs

The primary ECCNs affected by the advanced computing controls include:

• 3A090 — Integrated circuits with specified TPP thresholds
• 4A090 — Computer systems containing controlled integrated circuits
• 3A001 — Certain electronic components (including some semiconductor devices)
• 4A003 — Digital computers and related equipment
• 5A002 — Information security systems (when containing controlled chips)
• 3D001 / 3E001 — Software and technology for controlled electronic items

Compliance Considerations

For Exporters

• Recalculate your chip inventory against the TPP < 21,000 and bandwidth < 6,500 GB/s thresholds
• Establish relationships with BIS-approved independent testing entities
• Budget for the added compliance costs (testing, KYC, reporting)
• Track the 50% volume cap carefully — this requires robust internal record-keeping

For Technology Companies

• If you integrate third-party chips into your products, verify the ECCN of each component
• Note that the rule applies to the chip itself, not the system — a server containing an H200 may have different controls depending on its overall configuration
• Monitor for future threshold adjustments, as BIS has historically revised these numbers

What to Watch

BIS signaled that these thresholds will be reviewed periodically. As next-generation chips like NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture and AMD's MI400 series enter production, pressure will build to either raise or further tighten the performance ceilings. The comment period for this rule closed in March 2026, and additional modifications may follow.

Conclusion

The January 2026 rule represents a calibrated shift in U.S. semiconductor export policy — not a broad liberalization, but a targeted relaxation with significant strings attached. Exporters should not assume that meeting the TPP and bandwidth thresholds automatically results in approval. The four conditions (supply priority, purchaser compliance, independent testing, and KYC safeguards) create substantial compliance obligations that require planning and investment.

For the latest classification details, search for 3A090, 4A090, or 4A003 in our ECCN database.